Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.88 – 24.46

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 41.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.8 ±19.3

4567The Mechanized Mafia

Provisional

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 39.28Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 77.58Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

545ROBO-DAWGS

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 37.02Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.2 ±15

3171HURRICANES

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX -15.25Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

564Longwood RoboLions

Season APEX 64.9Event APEX -6.59Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9016Syosset SuperSonics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 46.3Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4567, 8267, 545

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4567, 8267, 545

Auto

21.7 13%

Teleop

100.6 61%

Endgame

41.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3171, 564, 9016

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.5 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3171, 564, 9016

Auto

13.0 84%

Teleop

-5.6 0%

Endgame

8.0 52%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.1 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score153.9pts

Blue projected score24.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.4
Score range: 4–174
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 112.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.8Season APEX216.2

21.7Auto13

100.6Teleop-5.6

41.5Endgame8

82Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	27
teleop	71	36
endgame	51	24
foul	5	10
total	143	97

Result

Final score

143 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 41.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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