Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.84 – 179.75

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

156 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.1 ±15.6

358Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 45.09Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2161Robocats

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX -10.35Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 37.1Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.5 ±18.1

1546Chaos, Inc.

Provisional

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 43.09Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1554Oceanside Kraken

Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 54.27Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 82.39Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 358, 2161, 870

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 358, 2161, 870

Auto

33.6 44%

Teleop

22.3 29%

Endgame

20.3 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1546, 1554, 287

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1546, 1554, 287

Auto

29.4 17%

Teleop

103.8 61%

Endgame

37.6 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score71.8pts

Blue projected score179.8pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107.9
Score range: 52–200
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 366 vs event baseline 110.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.1Season APEX390.5

33.6Auto29.4

22.3Teleop103.8

20.3Endgame37.6

119Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	54
teleop	87	121
endgame	52	20
foul	0	15
total	156	210

Result

Final score

156 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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