Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

162.72 – 26.07

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 111

Prediction missed · off by 100.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.1 ±14.5

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 85.45Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6806Mineola Wild Reds

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX 19.87Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 57.4Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.7 ±20.5

2347Trial and Error

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 13.67Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX -0.37Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

884Mechanical Mules

Provisional

Season APEX 24.3Event APEX 12.77Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3950, 6806, 1468

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3950, 6806, 1468

Auto

25.3 18%

Teleop

97.4 69%

Endgame

19.2 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2347, 6423, 884

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2347, 6423, 884

Auto

18.4 61%

Teleop

-5.9 0%

Endgame

17.6 58%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score162.7pts

Blue projected score26.1pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.7
Score range: 6–183
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 111.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.1Season APEX179.7

25.3Auto18.4

97.4Teleop-5.9

19.2Endgame17.6

66Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	15
teleop	11	49
endgame	4	47
foul	15	0
total	46	111

Result

Final score

46 – 111

Prediction missed · off by 100.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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