Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

84.4 – 58.57

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 27.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.1 ±18.1

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 78.83Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2487Mechanical Animals

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 12.01Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7673Formosan Sika

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX -6.44Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 452.6 ±15.3

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 54.71Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

871Robotechs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 0.87Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9646The Marinators

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 2.99Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2638, 2487, 7673

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2638, 2487, 7673

Auto

28.8 41%

Teleop

12.5 18%

Endgame

29.3 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 353, 871, 9646

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 353, 871, 9646

Auto

16.8 39%

Teleop

20.3 47%

Endgame

6.1 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score84.4pts

Blue projected score58.6pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.8
Score range: 39–104
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 112.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.1Season APEX452.6

28.8Auto16.8

12.5Teleop20.3

29.3Endgame6.1

127Consistency224

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	23
teleop	29	53
endgame	4	5
foul	0	5
total	57	86

Result

Final score

57 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 27.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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