Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.37 – 43.37

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 32

Prediction missed · off by 50.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.3 ±19.7

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 74.52Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1803Vikings

Provisional

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 20.41Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

569Rambots 569

Provisional

Season APEX 52Event APEX 15.44Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 135.9 ±19.3

564Longwood RoboLions

Season APEX 64.9Event APEX 1.47Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

329Mohawks

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 13.97Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

545ROBO-DAWGS

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 27.93Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 263, 1803, 569

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 263, 1803, 569

Auto

13.0 13%

Teleop

49.8 48%

Endgame

40.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 564, 329, 545

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 564, 329, 545

Auto

6.1 14%

Teleop

18.3 43%

Endgame

18.1 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.9 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110.4pts

Blue projected score43.4pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67
Score range: 22–131
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 53 vs event baseline 115.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.3Season APEX135.9

13Auto6.1

49.8Teleop18.3

40.1Endgame18.1

57Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	14
teleop	6	4
endgame	1	9
foul	0	5
total	21	32

Result

Final score

21 – 32

Prediction missed · off by 50.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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