Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.91 – 0

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

313 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 59 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447.9 ±13.5

2869Regal Eagles

Season APEX 89Event APEX 20.85Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9016Syosset SuperSonics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 23.91Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5736Kingsmen Robotics

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 187.15Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.8 ±17.5

28Pierson Whalers

Provisional

Season APEX 53Event APEX 10.05Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3171HURRICANES

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX -22.35Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5016Huntington Robotics

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 3.6Rank 46Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2869, 9016, 5736

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2869, 9016, 5736

Auto

68.7 31%

Teleop

100.3 45%

Endgame

53.4 24%

Strengths

· 5736 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 28, 3171, 5016

/ 100 compat

Projected

-8.7 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 28, 3171, 5016

Auto

-1.0 14%

Teleop

-10.4 100%

Endgame

4.5 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score231.9pts

Blue projected score-8.7pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 231.9
Score range: -20–252
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 111.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447.9Season APEX241.8

68.7Auto-1

100.3Teleop-10.4

53.4Endgame4.5

101Consistency195

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	18
teleop	155	3
endgame	69	1
foul	0	15
total	313	37

Result

Final score

313 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 59 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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