Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.25 – 82.39

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 155

Prediction missed · off by 85.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218 ±17.7

2027Robotic Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 55.08Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 66.26Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX 25.91Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 614.4 ±12.4

4458Infernobotix

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 5.27Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 48.46Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 28.66Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2027, 1468, 6423

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2027, 1468, 6423

Auto

23.6 16%

Teleop

95.4 65%

Endgame

27.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4458, 2638, 870

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4458, 2638, 870

Auto

25.0 28%

Teleop

49.5 56%

Endgame

13.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score147.3pts

Blue projected score82.4pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.9
Score range: 62–167
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 111.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218Season APEX614.4

23.6Auto25

95.4Teleop49.5

27.3Endgame13.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	59
teleop	14	51
endgame	10	25
foul	10	20
total	49	155

Result

Final score

49 – 155

Prediction missed · off by 85.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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