Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.73 – 110.06

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

120 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 51.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.2 ±18.4

329Mohawks

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 14.78Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2347Trial and Error

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX -13.96Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 63.91Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.5 ±22.5

2487Mechanical Animals

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 17.8Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

569Rambots 569

Provisional

Season APEX 52Event APEX 41.09Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1546Chaos, Inc.

Provisional

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 51.17Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 329, 2347, 263

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 329, 2347, 263

Auto

18.1 36%

Teleop

14.3 28%

Endgame

18.3 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2487, 569, 1546

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2487, 569, 1546

Auto

32.7 31%

Teleop

52.3 49%

Endgame

21.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score64.7pts

Blue projected score110.1pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.3
Score range: 45–130
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 112.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.2Season APEX148.5

18.1Auto32.7

14.3Teleop52.3

18.3Endgame21.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	19
teleop	75	16
endgame	21	28
foul	0	0
total	120	63

Result

Final score

120 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 51.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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