Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

120.54 – 39.49

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 38.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.2 ±13.9

1554Oceanside Kraken

Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 28.89Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 45.77Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 45.88Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.9 ±17.7

9646The Marinators

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 20.37Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5016Huntington Robotics

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX -3.33Rank 46Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

884Mechanical Mules

Provisional

Season APEX 24.3Event APEX 22.45Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1554, 8267, 1880

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1554, 8267, 1880

Auto

14.3 13%

Teleop

63.2 56%

Endgame

35.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9646, 5016, 884

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9646, 5016, 884

Auto

21.3 48%

Teleop

13.7 31%

Endgame

9.5 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score120.5pts

Blue projected score39.5pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.1
Score range: 18–142
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 114.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.2Season APEX370.9

14.3Auto21.3

63.2Teleop13.7

35.2Endgame9.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	11
teleop	126	21
endgame	23	22
foul	5	5
total	178	59

Result

Final score

178 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 38.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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