Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

265.18 – 145.73

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 591.9 ±12.9

810The Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 77.38Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 127.45Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 60.35Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310 ±16.8

9016Syosset SuperSonics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 44.82Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 87.23Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

527Red Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 13.68Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 810, 870, 353

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 810, 870, 353

Auto

44.7 17%

Teleop

145.8 57%

Endgame

66.3 26%

Strengths

· 870 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9016, 263, 527

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9016, 263, 527

Auto

33.3 24%

Teleop

63.0 46%

Endgame

40.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score265.2pts

Blue projected score145.7pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.5
Score range: 121–290
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 139.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

591.9Season APEX310

44.7Auto33.3

145.8Teleop63

66.3Endgame40.6

45Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	23
teleop	92	57
endgame	54	50
foul	0	10
total	186	140

Result

Final score

186 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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