Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.6 – 165.02

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.5 ±16.8

3624Soaring Colts

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 35.59Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7673Formosan Sika

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX -9.88Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

533The PSIcotics

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 2.89Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.7 ±13.9

9016Syosset SuperSonics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 37.83Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 122.22Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

806The Brooklyn Blacksmiths

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 4.97Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3624, 7673, 533

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3624, 7673, 533

Auto

8.2 33%

Teleop

11.9 48%

Endgame

4.8 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9016, 3950, 806

/ 100 compat

Projected

165 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9016, 3950, 806

Auto

40.8 26%

Teleop

66.0 43%

Endgame

47.8 31%

Strengths

· 3950 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score28.6pts

Blue projected score165pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136.4
Score range: 9–185
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 110.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.5Season APEX270.7

8.2Auto40.8

11.9Teleop66

4.8Endgame47.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	27
teleop	4	47
endgame	7	15
foul	10	5
total	36	94

Result

Final score

36 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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