Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.4 – 85.23

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.8 ±20.5

527Red Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 24.77Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

564Longwood RoboLions

Season APEX 64.9Event APEX 13.46Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3137T-Birds

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 38.17Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.2 ±19.4

2872CyberCats

Season APEX 180.6Event APEX 36.65Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10621Crusaders

Provisional

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 21.37Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

28Pierson Whalers

Provisional

Season APEX 53Event APEX 27.21Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 527, 564, 3137

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 527, 564, 3137

Auto

16.5 23%

Teleop

37.6 53%

Endgame

16.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2872, 10621, 28

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2872, 10621, 28

Auto

20.3 26%

Teleop

29.9 38%

Endgame

28.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score76.4pts

Blue projected score85.2pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.8
Score range: 56–105
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 109.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.8Season APEX285.2

16.5Auto20.3

37.6Teleop29.9

16.3Endgame28.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	27
teleop	42	48
endgame	28	14
foul	0	15
total	90	104

Result

Final score

90 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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