Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

48.64 – 22.54

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 76.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.5 ±13.5

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 29.4Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9646The Marinators

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 11.49Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6806Mineola Wild Reds

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX 7.75Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.2 ±20.5

4458Infernobotix

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 1.76Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1546Chaos, Inc.

Provisional

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 11.49Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2027Robotic Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 9.29Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8267, 9646, 6806

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8267, 9646, 6806

Auto

10.3 21%

Teleop

21.6 45%

Endgame

16.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4458, 1546, 2027

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4458, 1546, 2027

Auto

-3.7 0%

Teleop

14.8 63%

Endgame

12.4 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score48.6pts

Blue projected score22.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.1
Score range: 3–69
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 109.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.5Season APEX216.2

10.3Auto-3.7

21.6Teleop14.8

16.2Endgame12.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	34
teleop	62	79
endgame	9	16
foul	0	0
total	95	129

Result

Final score

95 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 76.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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