Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.76 – 174.11

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

201 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 88.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331 ±16.9

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 29.19Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

601BayBots

Provisional

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 1.41Rank 47Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

810The Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 27.16Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 406.6 ±19.3

5736Kingsmen Robotics

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 112.03Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

569Rambots 569

Provisional

Season APEX 52Event APEX 46.37Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2347Trial and Error

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 15.71Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1880, 601, 810

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1880, 601, 810

Auto

11.2 18%

Teleop

13.0 21%

Endgame

38.3 61%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5736, 569, 2347

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5736, 569, 2347

Auto

39.8 24%

Teleop

84.7 52%

Endgame

38.1 23%

Strengths

· 5736 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57.8pts

Blue projected score174.1pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116.4
Score range: 40–192
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 102.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331Season APEX406.6

11.2Auto39.8

13Teleop84.7

38.3Endgame38.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	81
teleop	106	94
endgame	45	23
foul	20	10
total	201	208

Result

Final score

201 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 88.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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