Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.04 – 19.9

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

55 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 10.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.7 ±18.7

884Mechanical Mules

Provisional

Season APEX 24.3Event APEX 30.72Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2161Robocats

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX -12.97Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 45.29Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.5 ±16.8

329Mohawks

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 16.88Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5016Huntington Robotics

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 3.09Rank 46Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

533The PSIcotics

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX -0.07Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 884, 2161, 2638

/ 100 compat

Projected

63 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 884, 2161, 2638

Auto

22.2 36%

Teleop

20.8 34%

Endgame

18.9 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 329, 5016, 533

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 329, 5016, 533

Auto

4.0 28%

Teleop

-5.6 0%

Endgame

15.7 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63pts

Blue projected score19.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.1
Score range: 1–82
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 88 vs event baseline 106.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

285.7Season APEX223.5

22.2Auto4

20.8Teleop-5.6

18.9Endgame15.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	11
teleop	14	14
endgame	0	3
foul	0	5
total	55	33

Result

Final score

55 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 10.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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