Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.95 – 56.87

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 78.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.1 ±22.5

514Entropy

Provisional

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX 26Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1803Vikings

Provisional

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 21.38Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

545ROBO-DAWGS

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 40.57Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490.1 ±13.5

2875CyberHawks

Season APEX 87Event APEX 14.09Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 41.54Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3624Soaring Colts

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 1.24Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 514, 1803, 545

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 514, 1803, 545

Auto

20.2 23%

Teleop

44.3 51%

Endgame

23.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2875, 870, 3624

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2875, 870, 3624

Auto

15.5 26%

Teleop

23.5 40%

Endgame

20.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score87.9pts

Blue projected score56.9pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.1
Score range: 38–107
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 106.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.1Season APEX490.1

20.2Auto15.5

44.3Teleop23.5

23.1Endgame20.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	32
teleop	17	99
endgame	9	40
foul	5	0
total	45	171

Result

Final score

45 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 78.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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