Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.32 – 100.99

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.8 ±14.5

564Longwood RoboLions

Season APEX 64.9Event APEX 14.85Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

358Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 7.9Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

806The Brooklyn Blacksmiths

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 14.57Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.8 ±16.8

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 53.14Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 31.85Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3137T-Birds

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 16Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 564, 358, 806

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 564, 358, 806

Auto

3.9 10%

Teleop

21.5 57%

Endgame

12.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 353, 1468, 3137

/ 100 compat

Projected

101 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 353, 1468, 3137

Auto

18.4 18%

Teleop

56.9 56%

Endgame

25.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score37.3pts

Blue projected score101pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.7
Score range: 18–120
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 105.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.8Season APEX309.8

3.9Auto18.4

21.5Teleop56.9

12.6Endgame25.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	35
teleop	10	117
endgame	8	23
foul	0	30
total	40	205

Result

Final score

40 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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