Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.16 – 77.15

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 20 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.9 ±19.4

28Pierson Whalers

Provisional

Season APEX 53Event APEX 26.29Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9016Syosset SuperSonics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 41.44Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4567The Mechanized Mafia

Provisional

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 33.43Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.8 ±22

496Royals

Provisional

Season APEX 72.8Event APEX 26.29Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11030Bonac Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 17.43Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2487Mechanical Animals

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 33.43Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 28, 9016, 4567

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 28, 9016, 4567

Auto

19.4 20%

Teleop

52.0 54%

Endgame

25.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 496, 11030, 2487

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 496, 11030, 2487

Auto

13.1 17%

Teleop

48.0 62%

Endgame

16.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101.2pts

Blue projected score77.2pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24
Score range: 58–120
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 106.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.9Season APEX199.8

19.4Auto13.1

52Teleop48

25.1Endgame16

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	18
teleop	29	49
endgame	22	31
foul	0	5
total	87	103

Result

Final score

87 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 20 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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