Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.47 – 179.07

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.7 ±19.3

10621Crusaders

Provisional

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 31.05Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

871Robotechs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 15.71Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3171HURRICANES

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 7.71Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362 ±15.3

1554Oceanside Kraken

Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 15.71Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 117.25Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 46.11Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10621, 871, 3171

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10621, 871, 3171

Auto

9.9 19%

Teleop

22.2 43%

Endgame

19.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1554, 3950, 263

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1554, 3950, 263

Auto

37.3 22%

Teleop

86.7 52%

Endgame

42.2 25%

Strengths

· 3950 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score54.5pts

Blue projected score179.1pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.6
Score range: 35–198
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 103.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.7Season APEX362

9.9Auto37.3

22.2Teleop86.7

19.9Endgame42.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	30
teleop	13	112
endgame	13	61
foul	5	10
total	49	213

Result

Final score

49 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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