Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.13 – 46.26

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.5 ±16.9

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX 50.61Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 56.76Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10621Crusaders

Provisional

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 20.76Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.8 ±17.5

2161Robocats

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 1.11Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3624Soaring Colts

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 37.66Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2869Regal Eagles

Season APEX 89Event APEX 7.49Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6423, 1880, 10621

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6423, 1880, 10621

Auto

19.1 16%

Teleop

58.4 50%

Endgame

39.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2161, 3624, 2869

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2161, 3624, 2869

Auto

17.8 47%

Teleop

20.8 55%

Endgame

-0.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score128.1pts

Blue projected score46.3pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.9
Score range: 21–153
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 139.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.5Season APEX247.8

19.1Auto17.8

58.4Teleop20.8

39.2Endgame-0.6

87Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	17
teleop	46	0
endgame	54	0
foul	5	0
total	121	17

Result

Final score

121 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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