Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

242.21 – 272.78

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

175 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.7 ±12.8

6479AZTECH Robotics

Season APEX 110.2Event APEX 73.42Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

991BroncoBots

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 76.36Rank 6Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 92.43Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 549.2 ±11

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 59.09Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 112.23Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 101.46Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6479, 991, 3990

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6479, 991, 3990

Auto

51.9 22%

Teleop

131.5 55%

Endgame

54.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5851, 7183, 6413

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5851, 7183, 6413

Auto

50.0 19%

Teleop

155.3 59%

Endgame

60.1 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score242.2pts

Blue projected score272.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.6
Score range: 210–305
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 179.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.7Season APEX549.2

51.9Auto50

131.5Teleop155.3

54.1Endgame60.1

24Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	49
teleop	98	133
endgame	47	18
foul	0	15
total	175	215

Result

Final score

175 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 pts

Match videos

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