Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

307.33 – 269.65

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

231 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 61 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 526.4 ±11.2

10183ARC

Season APEX 89.7Event APEX 28.98Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 146.61Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 131.74Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.3 ±12.8

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 149.23Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 105.9Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 14.52Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10183, 4421, 8005

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10183, 4421, 8005

Auto

71.8 24%

Teleop

168.1 55%

Endgame

64.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9406, 8503, 9059

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9406, 8503, 9059

Auto

69.9 27%

Teleop

139.5 54%

Endgame

47.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score307.3pts

Blue projected score269.7pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.7
Score range: 238–339
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 178.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

526.4Season APEX370.3

71.8Auto69.9

168.1Teleop139.5

64.9Endgame47.7

15Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	84
teleop	144	104
endgame	38	21
foul	5	15
total	231	224

Result

Final score

231 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 61 pts

Match videos

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