Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

246.32 – 245.36

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

256 – 378

Prediction missed · off by 71.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.4 ±15.3

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 58.43Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7425Green Valley Robotics

Season APEX 119.9Event APEX 97.23Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 90.66Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 549.2 ±11

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 49.5Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 103.21Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 92.65Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2375, 7425, 2438

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2375, 7425, 2438

Auto

39.7 16%

Teleop

137.7 56%

Endgame

68.3 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5851, 7183, 6413

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5851, 7183, 6413

Auto

44.8 19%

Teleop

134.1 57%

Endgame

56.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score246.3pts

Blue projected score245.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1
Score range: 213–278
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 634 vs event baseline 175.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.4Season APEX549.2

39.7Auto44.8

137.7Teleop134.1

68.3Endgame56.8

8Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	72
teleop	126	235
endgame	72	71
foul	5	0
total	256	378

Result

Final score

256 – 378

Prediction missed · off by 71.2 pts

Match videos

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