Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

284.49 – 258.46

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

232 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 50 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.3 ±12.8

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 153.87Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 20.51Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 110.11Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 549.2 ±11

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 53.12Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 106.06Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 99.28Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9406, 9059, 8503

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9406, 9059, 8503

Auto

71.8 27%

Teleop

144.7 54%

Endgame

52.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5851, 7183, 6413

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5851, 7183, 6413

Auto

47.3 19%

Teleop

135.5 55%

Endgame

62.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score284.5pts

Blue projected score258.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26
Score range: 227–315
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 173.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.3Season APEX549.2

71.8Auto47.3

144.7Teleop135.5

52Endgame62.7

15Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	38
teleop	129	133
endgame	37	40
foul	0	0
total	232	211

Result

Final score

232 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 50 pts

Match videos

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