Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

303.82 – 232.86

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

334 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 44.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 526.4 ±11.2

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 145.31Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10183ARC

Season APEX 89.7Event APEX 29.67Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 128.84Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.4 ±15.3

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 54.89Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7425Green Valley Robotics

Season APEX 119.9Event APEX 91.31Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 86.66Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4421, 10183, 8005

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4421, 10183, 8005

Auto

69.2 23%

Teleop

164.5 55%

Endgame

67.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2375, 7425, 2438

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2375, 7425, 2438

Auto

37.7 16%

Teleop

137.9 59%

Endgame

56.6 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score303.8pts

Blue projected score232.9pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71
Score range: 202–335
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 625 vs event baseline 171.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

526.4Season APEX353.4

69.2Auto37.7

164.5Teleop137.9

67.1Endgame56.6

25Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	47
teleop	189	140
endgame	61	104
foul	0	0
total	334	291

Result

Final score

334 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 44.2 pts

Match videos

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