Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

219.24 – 245.96

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

317 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 57.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.7 ±12.8

6479AZTECH Robotics

Season APEX 110.2Event APEX 64.67Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

991BroncoBots

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 67.87Rank 6Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 86.7Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 552.3 ±11.1

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 123.09Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 35.04Rank 35Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 87.83Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6479, 991, 3990

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6479, 991, 3990

Auto

44.8 21%

Teleop

117.9 55%

Endgame

52.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3882, 4253, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

246 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3882, 4253, 4270

Auto

47.5 20%

Teleop

155.6 65%

Endgame

35.8 15%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score219.2pts

Blue projected score246pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.7
Score range: 188–277
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 545 vs event baseline 170.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.7Season APEX552.3

44.8Auto47.5

117.9Teleop155.6

52.2Endgame35.8

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	21
teleop	205	121
endgame	43	81
foul	10	5
total	317	228

Result

Final score

317 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 57.9 pts

Match videos

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