Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

288.87 – 272.5

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 19.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 526.4 ±11.2

10183ARC

Season APEX 89.7Event APEX 21.33Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 141.75Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 125.79Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 549.2 ±11

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 59.9Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 111.84Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 100.76Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10183, 4421, 8005

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10183, 4421, 8005

Auto

59.8 21%

Teleop

164.2 57%

Endgame

62.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5851, 7183, 6413

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5851, 7183, 6413

Auto

48.3 19%

Teleop

151.5 60%

Endgame

54.1 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score288.9pts

Blue projected score272.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.4
Score range: 240–322
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 523 vs event baseline 182.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

526.4Season APEX549.2

59.8Auto48.3

164.2Teleop151.5

62.9Endgame54.1

23Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	67
teleop	118	136
endgame	89	20
foul	15	25
total	275	248

Result

Final score

275 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 19.2 pts

Match videos

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