Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
348.87 – 292.91
67%33%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
331 – 265
Prediction correct · off by 22.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 546.2 ±11.2
Season APEX 57Event APEX 11.54Rank 33Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 133.17Rank 3Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 285Event APEX 204.16Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.4 ±11.2
Season APEX 89.7Event APEX 23.19Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 142.33Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 127.39Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1165, 987, 7426
81
/ 100 compatProjected
348.9 pts
~2.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 1165, 987, 7426
Auto
61.8 18%
Teleop
192.6 56%
Endgame
90.0 26%
Strengths
- · 7426 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10183, 4421, 8005
82
/ 100 compatProjected
292.9 pts
~1.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 10183, 4421, 8005
Auto
66.6 23%
Teleop
163.9 56%
Endgame
59.8 21%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.18
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score348.9pts
Blue projected score292.9pts
Red win probability67%
Event bonus sample180alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 54%, blue 45%
Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 56
- Score range
- 261–381
- Upset likelihood
- 33%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
546.2Season APEX526.4
61.8Auto66.6
192.6Teleop163.9
90Endgame59.8
11Consistency20
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 80 | 24 |
| teleop | 156 | 163 |
| endgame | 85 | 78 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 331 | 265 |
Result
Final score
331 – 265
Prediction correct · off by 22.9 pts
Match videos
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