Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

262.08 – 276.39

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 342

Prediction correct · off by 87.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.3 ±12.8

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 146.26Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 103.74Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 12.08Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 552.3 ±11.1

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 45.34Rank 35Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 132.98Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 98.07Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9406, 8503, 9059

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9406, 8503, 9059

Auto

72.6 29%

Teleop

133.4 54%

Endgame

42.9 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4253, 3882, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4253, 3882, 4270

Auto

44.5 16%

Teleop

174.6 64%

Endgame

52.2 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score262.1pts

Blue projected score276.4pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.3
Score range: 230–308
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 494 vs event baseline 179.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.3Season APEX552.3

72.6Auto44.5

133.4Teleop174.6

42.9Endgame52.2

30Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	44
teleop	67	172
endgame	26	76
foul	0	50
total	152	342

Result

Final score

152 – 342

Prediction correct · off by 87.8 pts

Match videos

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