Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.4 – 77.63

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

91 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.5 ±18.8

6479AZTECH Robotics

Season APEX 110.2Event APEX 51.43Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3577Saint's Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 38.86Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

988Steel Phoenix

Provisional

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX 1.11Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 443.3 ±12.9

60Kingman FIRST Robotics Team 60 (The Bionic Bulldogs)

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 23.97Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 38.86Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 14.8Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6479, 3577, 988

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6479, 3577, 988

Auto

21.5 24%

Teleop

54.2 60%

Endgame

14.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 60, 4421, 2438

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 60, 4421, 2438

Auto

16.7 22%

Teleop

35.9 46%

Endgame

25.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.4pts

Blue projected score77.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.8
Score range: 51–118
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 152.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.5Season APEX443.3

21.5Auto16.7

54.2Teleop35.9

14.3Endgame25

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	34
teleop	18	16
endgame	33	16
foul	15	0
total	91	66

Result

Final score

91 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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