Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

84.93 – 51.47

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 90.3 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.2 ±15.6

7654Robot In Shed

Provisional

Season APEX 83Event APEX 33.43Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX -Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX -Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.8 ±20.8

10186feenx

Provisional

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX -Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5049Minerbots

Provisional

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 24.29Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1011CRUSH

Provisional

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 1.43Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7654, 9059, 9406

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7654, 9059, 9406

Auto

19.5 23%

Teleop

44.9 53%

Endgame

20.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10186, 5049, 1011

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10186, 5049, 1011

Auto

18.0 35%

Teleop

20.0 39%

Endgame

13.4 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score84.9pts

Blue projected score51.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.5
Score range: 23–113
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 154.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.2Season APEX177.8

4Auto10.3

19.1Teleop7.1

10.3Endgame8.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	7
teleop	129	17
endgame	45	5
foul	15	0
total	243	29

Result

Final score

243 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 90.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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