Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

282.01 – 88.75

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

212 – 261

Prediction missed · off by 121.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.3 ±14.3

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 133.19Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

988Steel Phoenix

Provisional

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX -13.71Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 162.53Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.7 ±15.6

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 2.14Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 91.81Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11235Golden Ratio

Provisional

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX -5.2Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8005, 988, 9406

/ 100 compat

Projected

282 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8005, 988, 9406

Auto

73.9 27%

Teleop

155.3 56%

Endgame

48.1 17%

Strengths

· 9406 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9059, 7183, 11235

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9059, 7183, 11235

Auto

32.0 39%

Teleop

25.2 31%

Endgame

24.1 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score282pts

Blue projected score88.8pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.3
Score range: 59–312
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 166.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.3Season APEX391.7

73.9Auto32

155.3Teleop25.2

48.1Endgame24.1

57Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	50
teleop	79	160
endgame	37	6
foul	50	45
total	212	261

Result

Final score

212 – 261

Prediction missed · off by 121.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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