Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.02 – 103.31

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

286 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437.5 ±12.7

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 114.29Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10183ARC

Season APEX 89.7Event APEX 22.01Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 68.72Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.4 ±18

9018ElRobotiKO

Provisional

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 24.73Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8387MECH Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 32.43Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 46.15Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3882, 10183, 10903

/ 100 compat

Projected

205 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3882, 10183, 10903

Auto

34.0 17%

Teleop

132.4 66%

Endgame

35.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9018, 8387, 8229

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9018, 8387, 8229

Auto

26.4 28%

Teleop

48.9 52%

Endgame

19.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score205pts

Blue projected score103.3pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.7
Score range: 73–235
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 164.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437.5Season APEX322.4

34Auto26.4

132.4Teleop48.9

35.2Endgame19.6

27Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	39
teleop	136	78
endgame	71	12
foul	15	5
total	286	134

Result

Final score

286 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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