Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.1 – 64.94

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

119 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 11 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.6 ±17

11235Golden Ratio

Provisional

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX -3.79Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7425Green Valley Robotics

Season APEX 119.9Event APEX 92.11Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 29.78Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.3 ±17

8717Cyber Vipers

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 43.93Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 4.32Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9426CLAWBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 16.69Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11235, 7425, 8338

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11235, 7425, 8338

Auto

31.1 25%

Teleop

62.4 50%

Endgame

32.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8717, 9059, 9426

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8717, 9059, 9426

Auto

20.2 38%

Teleop

13.0 24%

Endgame

20.3 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score118.1pts

Blue projected score64.9pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.2
Score range: 35–148
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 164.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.6Season APEX252.3

31.1Auto20.2

62.4Teleop13

32.3Endgame20.3

92Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	18
teleop	55	40
endgame	16	28
foul	20	0
total	119	86

Result

Final score

119 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 11 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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