Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

260.66 – 74.59

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

358 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 424.6 ±15.1

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 135.39Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 109.24Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1011CRUSH

Provisional

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 16.03Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.4 ±16

9002Falcon Dynamics - Foothill High School

Provisional

Season APEX 41.6Event APEX 0.78Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 53.15Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10183ARC

Season APEX 89.7Event APEX 20.66Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4421, 3882, 1011

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.7 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4421, 3882, 1011

Auto

52.5 20%

Teleop

150.8 57%

Endgame

59.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9002, 5851, 10183

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.6 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9002, 5851, 10183

Auto

17.7 23%

Teleop

58.2 74%

Endgame

2.7 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score260.7pts

Blue projected score74.6pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 186.1
Score range: 46–290
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 162.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

424.6Season APEX210.4

52.5Auto17.7

150.8Teleop58.2

59.2Endgame2.7

8Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	24
teleop	202	46
endgame	80	15
foul	0	5
total	358	90

Result

Final score

358 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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