Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.22 – 120.6

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

140 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.4 ±17

6824LVA Robot Pigeons

Provisional

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 55.2Rank 18Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

10905Team LOVE

Season APEX 70Event APEX 21.58Rank 25Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 89

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 117.44Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.8 ±13.3

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX 13.47Rank 33Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

991BroncoBots

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 84.97Rank 6Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 22.16Rank 35Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6824, 10905, 8503

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.2 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6824, 10905, 8503

Auto

20.9 11%

Teleop

119.1 62%

Endgame

51.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1165, 991, 4253

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1165, 991, 4253

Auto

16.5 15%

Teleop

59.7 55%

Endgame

31.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score194.2pts

Blue projected score120.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.6
Score range: 92–223
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 163.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.4Season APEX324.8

20.9Auto16.5

119.1Teleop59.7

51.6Endgame31.6

66Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	48
teleop	42	76
endgame	66	16
foul	0	0
total	140	140

Result

Final score

140 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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