Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.44 – 234.58

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

384 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 117.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473.6 ±17

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 48.32Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 178.35Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8387MECH Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 22.77Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.1 ±18

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 176.44Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9018ElRobotiKO

Provisional

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 38.04Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3577Saint's Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 20.1Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2375, 7426, 8387

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2375, 7426, 8387

Auto

42.2 17%

Teleop

141.3 58%

Endgame

59.1 24%

Strengths

· 7426 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9406, 9018, 3577

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9406, 9018, 3577

Auto

44.8 20%

Teleop

126.3 57%

Endgame

50.1 23%

Strengths

· 9406 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score249.4pts

Blue projected score234.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.9
Score range: 206–278
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 519 vs event baseline 161.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473.6Season APEX281.1

42.2Auto44.8

141.3Teleop126.3

59.1Endgame50.1

0Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	59
teleop	190	72
endgame	129	4
foul	15	0
total	384	135

Result

Final score

384 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 117.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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