Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.15 – 49.16

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236 ±15

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 29.04Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 27.08Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8717Cyber Vipers

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 44.03Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.4 ±19.2

9534Wolves Robotics (Basic HS)

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 28.2Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

988Steel Phoenix

Provisional

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX -6.36Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7654Robot In Shed

Provisional

Season APEX 83Event APEX 27.32Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9233, 8338, 8717

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9233, 8338, 8717

Auto

13.1 14%

Teleop

60.8 63%

Endgame

22.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9534, 988, 7654

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9534, 988, 7654

Auto

3.8 10%

Teleop

6.7 17%

Endgame

28.8 73%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score100.2pts

Blue projected score49.2pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51
Score range: 20–129
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 163.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236Season APEX166.4

13.1Auto3.8

60.8Teleop6.7

22.7Endgame28.8

99Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	11
teleop	56	3
endgame	34	2
foul	0	0
total	112	16

Result

Final score

112 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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