Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.18 – 159.15

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

126 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 5.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.9 ±18

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 110.39Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9018ElRobotiKO

Provisional

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 24.91Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9002Falcon Dynamics - Foothill High School

Provisional

Season APEX 41.6Event APEX -1.12Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.4 ±12.9

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 88.48Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10905Team LOVE

Season APEX 70Event APEX 11.2Rank 25Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 89

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 59.47Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7183, 9018, 9002

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7183, 9018, 9002

Auto

38.0 29%

Teleop

82.7 63%

Endgame

10.6 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3990, 10905, 5851

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3990, 10905, 5851

Auto

34.5 22%

Teleop

87.0 57%

Endgame

32.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.2pts

Blue projected score159.2pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25
Score range: 101–192
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 185.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.9Season APEX341.4

38Auto34.5

82.7Teleop87

10.6Endgame32.1

41Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	33
teleop	49	81
endgame	34	48
foul	0	0
total	126	162

Result

Final score

126 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 5.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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