Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.74 – 92.67

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

162 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.9 ±18.4

5049Minerbots

Provisional

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 9.52Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8387MECH Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 16.47Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 73.75Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.1 ±18.4

1726N.E.R.D.S. (Nifty Engineering Robotics Design Squad)

Provisional

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 18.31Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 31.67Rank 35Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9018ElRobotiKO

Provisional

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 42.69Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5049, 8387, 2438

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5049, 8387, 2438

Auto

17.3 18%

Teleop

43.1 46%

Endgame

33.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1726, 4253, 9018

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1726, 4253, 9018

Auto

16.4 16%

Teleop

67.6 68%

Endgame

15.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.7pts

Blue projected score92.7pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.1
Score range: 63–130
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 164.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.9Season APEX259.1

17.3Auto16.4

43.1Teleop67.6

33.5Endgame15.6

21Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	31
teleop	82	29
endgame	57	0
foul	0	0
total	162	60

Result

Final score

162 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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