Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

280.37 – 356.16

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

361 – 421

Prediction correct · off by 72.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.9 ±15.6

9426CLAWBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 10.53Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 167.95Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 101.89Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 696.7 ±10.5

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 132.28Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 173.24Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 50.64Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9426, 9406, 8503

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9426, 9406, 8503

Auto

57.1 21%

Teleop

162.4 61%

Endgame

47.7 18%

Strengths

· 9406 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4421, 7426, 10903

/ 100 compat

Projected

356.2 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4421, 7426, 10903

Auto

65.3 18%

Teleop

215.5 59%

Endgame

81.8 23%

Strengths

· 7426 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score280.4pts

Blue projected score356.2pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.8
Score range: 251–385
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 782 vs event baseline 160.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.9Season APEX696.7

57.1Auto65.3

162.4Teleop215.5

47.7Endgame81.8

53Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	76
teleop	180	208
endgame	87	127
foul	15	10
total	361	421

Result

Final score

361 – 421

Prediction correct · off by 72.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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