Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.68 – 156.56

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.9 ±16.3

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 17.81Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9534Wolves Robotics (Basic HS)

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 32.5Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 50.37Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.2 ±11.9

10905Team LOVE

Season APEX 70Event APEX 11.41Rank 25Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 89

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 57.26Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 87.89Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9059, 9534, 2375

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9059, 9534, 2375

Auto

23.8 28%

Teleop

35.5 42%

Endgame

24.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10905, 4270, 6413

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10905, 4270, 6413

Auto

18.7 12%

Teleop

106.3 67%

Endgame

32.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score100.7pts

Blue projected score156.6pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.9
Score range: 72–186
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 161.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.9Season APEX485.2

23.8Auto18.7

35.5Teleop106.3

24.3Endgame32.7

2Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	26
teleop	15	100
endgame	5	66
foul	0	0
total	59	192

Result

Final score

59 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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