Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.24 – 83.54

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 105

Prediction missed · off by 46.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.9 ±18

9151RoboLynx

Provisional

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 34.78Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1011CRUSH

Provisional

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 18.52Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 94.94Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.6 ±17

60Kingman FIRST Robotics Team 60 (The Bionic Bulldogs)

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX -31.27Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7654Robot In Shed

Provisional

Season APEX 83Event APEX 24.78Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7425Green Valley Robotics

Season APEX 119.9Event APEX 90.03Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9151, 1011, 7183

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9151, 1011, 7183

Auto

31.0 23%

Teleop

62.2 47%

Endgame

40.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 60, 7654, 7425

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 60, 7654, 7425

Auto

20.0 22%

Teleop

38.5 42%

Endgame

32.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score148.2pts

Blue projected score83.5pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.7
Score range: 55–177
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 161.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.9Season APEX290.6

31Auto20

62.2Teleop38.5

40.5Endgame32.9

20Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	16
teleop	29	53
endgame	10	21
foul	0	15
total	76	105

Result

Final score

76 – 105

Prediction missed · off by 46.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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