Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.29 – 78.79

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.4 ±16

991BroncoBots

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 63.04Rank 6Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 53.15Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11235Golden Ratio

Provisional

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX -0.9Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.5 ±17

10183ARC

Season APEX 89.7Event APEX 10.67Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3577Saint's Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 34.52Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 33.6Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 991, 5851, 11235

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 991, 5851, 11235

Auto

19.6 21%

Teleop

19.1 21%

Endgame

52.6 58%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10183, 3577, 8338

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10183, 3577, 8338

Auto

15.7 20%

Teleop

47.5 60%

Endgame

16.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.3pts

Blue projected score78.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.5
Score range: 50–144
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 162.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.4Season APEX243.5

19.6Auto15.7

19.1Teleop47.5

52.6Endgame16.4

37Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	22
teleop	89	19
endgame	37	18
foul	5	5
total	155	64

Result

Final score

155 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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