Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.03 – 157.87

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.1 ±18.8

11235Golden Ratio

Provisional

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 10.49Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 35.08Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9426CLAWBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 26.46Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.2 ±14.1

9534Wolves Robotics (Basic HS)

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 21.75Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9037HHS Black Ops

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 1.08Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

987HIGHROLLERS

Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 135.04Rank 3Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11235, 9233, 9426

/ 100 compat

Projected

72 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11235, 9233, 9426

Auto

11.4 17%

Teleop

40.1 61%

Endgame

14.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9534, 9037, 987

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9534, 9037, 987

Auto

43.0 28%

Teleop

81.3 54%

Endgame

27.1 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score72pts

Blue projected score157.9pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.8
Score range: 39–191
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 185.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.1Season APEX346.2

11.4Auto43

40.1Teleop81.3

14Endgame27.1

50Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	50
teleop	29	106
endgame	19	25
foul	0	0
total	49	181

Result

Final score

49 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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