Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.8 – 47.96

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

344 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 52.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.6 ±15.6

10186feenx

Provisional

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 28.9Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 93.55Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 120.35Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.2 ±16.6

9037HHS Black Ops

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX -1.18Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 31.61Rank 35Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8387MECH Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 17.53Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10186, 8503, 4421

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.8 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10186, 8503, 4421

Auto

52.5 22%

Teleop

126.0 52%

Endgame

63.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9037, 4253, 8387

/ 100 compat

Projected

48 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9037, 4253, 8387

Auto

18.7 46%

Teleop

20.8 51%

Endgame

1.0 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score242.8pts

Blue projected score48pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 194.8
Score range: 19–272
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 162.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.6Season APEX342.2

52.5Auto18.7

126Teleop20.8

63.2Endgame1

23Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	24
teleop	189	18
endgame	87	3
foul	0	0
total	344	45

Result

Final score

344 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 52.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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