Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.76 – 210.26

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

422 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 105.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.8 ±14.8

1726N.E.R.D.S. (Nifty Engineering Robotics Design Squad)

Provisional

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX -4.7Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 142.77Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 91.69Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481 ±14.4

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 49.11Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 64.98Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 96.17Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1726, 7426, 3882

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1726, 7426, 3882

Auto

40.1 17%

Teleop

139.2 60%

Endgame

53.2 23%

Strengths

· 7426 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2375, 10903, 6413

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2375, 10903, 6413

Auto

44.9 22%

Teleop

127.9 63%

Endgame

30.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score229.8pts

Blue projected score210.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.5
Score range: 182–258
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 613 vs event baseline 157.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.8Season APEX481

40.1Auto44.9

139.2Teleop127.9

53.2Endgame30.4

35Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	23
teleop	271	110
endgame	85	58
foul	0	0
total	422	191

Result

Final score

422 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 105.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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