Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.46 – 234.85

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.3 ±15.3

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 65.06Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9426CLAWBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 10.44Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX 10.96Rank 33Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.7 ±17.7

9018ElRobotiKO

Provisional

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 50.05Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5049Minerbots

Provisional

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 27.26Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 157.54Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4270, 9426, 1165

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4270, 9426, 1165

Auto

14.4 17%

Teleop

50.4 59%

Endgame

20.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9018, 5049, 8005

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9018, 5049, 8005

Auto

59.6 26%

Teleop

121.2 52%

Endgame

50.8 22%

Strengths

· 8005 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score86.5pts

Blue projected score234.9pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -148.4
Score range: 58–263
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 157.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.3Season APEX336.7

14.4Auto59.6

50.4Teleop121.2

20.9Endgame50.8

33Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	34
teleop	92	83
endgame	1	55
foul	0	0
total	109	172

Result

Final score

109 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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