Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.18 – 92.85

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 8.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.5 ±16.2

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 34.46Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9534Wolves Robotics (Basic HS)

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 33.18Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9151RoboLynx

Provisional

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 32.54Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392.5 ±15.6

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 108.84Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

988Steel Phoenix

Provisional

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX -21.72Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10183ARC

Season APEX 89.7Event APEX 5.73Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8229, 9534, 9151

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8229, 9534, 9151

Auto

26.5 25%

Teleop

55.4 52%

Endgame

24.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7183, 988, 10183

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7183, 988, 10183

Auto

25.4 29%

Teleop

41.2 46%

Endgame

22.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score100.2pts

Blue projected score92.9pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.3
Score range: 64–129
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 159.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.5Season APEX392.5

26.5Auto25.4

55.4Teleop41.2

24.8Endgame22.2

25Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	21
teleop	8	35
endgame	8	25
foul	65	0
total	106	81

Result

Final score

106 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 8.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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