Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.57 – 120.06

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 314 ±16.6

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 30.81Rank 35Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10186feenx

Provisional

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 26.91Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

60Kingman FIRST Robotics Team 60 (The Bionic Bulldogs)

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX -24.15Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.7 ±14.5

991BroncoBots

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 70.18Rank 6Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 23.26Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 26.62Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4253, 10186, 60

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4253, 10186, 60

Auto

27.4 94%

Teleop

7.2 25%

Endgame

-5.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 991, 8338, 9059

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 991, 8338, 9059

Auto

16.0 15%

Teleop

36.5 33%

Endgame

57.7 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score33.6pts

Blue projected score120.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.5
Score range: 5–149
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 160.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

314Season APEX231.7

27.4Auto16

7.2Teleop36.5

-5.4Endgame57.7

75Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	47
teleop	22	45
endgame	18	11
foul	0	15
total	59	118

Result

Final score

59 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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